There is lot of discussion about the Aubameyang/Lacazette duo, and how Unai Emery might utilize the two strikers this coming season. I am no expert on tactics, and I don’t profess to have a strong, established position on…their best positions. But I did have some curiosity about more detailed math, and the math of minutes. I took a look at each of the two players’ records over the past four years across domestic league, domestic cup, and European competitions. I also looked at the typical slate of games that Arsenal has played over these past four years, if only to get a better handle on what kind of playing time we might expect the new coach to have to fill in 2018-2019.
From there, and absent a really critical assessment of asset allocation and whether having two £50M+ strikers exchanging time is wise, we might further assess whether there is bandwidth for both players, how they might split time at CF and out wide, etc.
So, here are some numbers (and deepest apologies to @7amkickoff and his indispensable “By the Numbers” work at arseblog):
- Minutes in a Premier League season: 3420 (6820, then, for two)
- Average Arsenal domestic cup minutes, last 4 years: 653
- Average Arsenal UEFA competition minutes, last 4 years: 900
- Average Arsenal game minutes, last 4 year: 4973 (9946, then, for two)
Now, some numbers for Lacazette and Aubameyang, in terms of minutes played per season. Bear in mind that PEA is past what conventional wisdom considers “peak” age, and Lacazette will be there this year. So one might reasonably expect that production might drop relative to playing time, and that playing time might also drop relative to health-related issues corresponding to age. So:
- Average number of Arsenal games, all competitions (’14-’18): 55
- Lacazette average number of appearances (’14-’18): 42
- Lacazette average minutes played, all competitions (’14-’18): 3361
- Aubameyang average number of appearances (’14-’18): 45
- Aubameyang average minutes played, all competitions (’14-’18): 3747
- Total average minutes played, all competitions (’14’-’18): 7108
Now, we can do some really (yes, simplistic) math and some light theorizing: With similar expectations of games and minutes played, what would an 80/20 split of time at CF mean, with PEA taking the lead at that position? What about a 50/50 split, with them swapping roles regularly? How would each perform if they were shifting positions and not consistently in one role? Then we can look at those splits, position shifts, relative to tailored opposition, and think about how Arsenal might best set up tactically in the moment.
I am not certain what, if anything, this can tell us about the “correct” tactics, or the most efficient asset allocation, or whether we should sell Lacazette to fund another position, etc. There are so many factors and moving parts. But I do know that just working through their history, coming to grips with the straight numbers, looking at the games Arsenal have played these last four years, has helped me understand the scale of a season better and given me a better basis for beginning to think about their roles. Knowing that the new head coach has a reputation for being tactically pro-active and studious of how to play his opponents, I have some confidence that there’s space — and more importantly, time — for both.